Chilean Copper Producers Slash 2026 Guidance in the Wake of Severe Weather

Two leading copper producers in Chile have cut their 2026 guidance after severe storms disrupted their operations in northern Chile. Combined, Antofagasta and Lundin reduced their production expectations by up to 55,000 tons when compared to the production guidance they had initially released for 2026.

The production declines stem from the storms that hit key mining regions in Chile in July and August, forcing miners to halt production and engage in costly and time-consuming recovery programs.

For Antofagasta Minerals, the Las Pelambres mine was hit hardest, leading the company to now expect total production of copper in 2026 to be between 625,000 and 655,000 tons. This is down from earlier production estimates of between 650,000 and 700,000 tons.

For Lundin, production expectations for this year have now been scaled down to between 120,000 and 130,000 tons at the Caserones mine. Initial estimates had projected production to be in the region of 130,000 to 140,000 tons this year.

The adverse weather not only resulted in reduced production expectations but also affected the cash cost of producing each pound of copper at Lundin’s facilities. Previously, the cost was between $2.05 and $2.25 for each pound of copper extracted from the ground. Because of the reduced production at the mine, the cost has now risen to between $2.15 and $2.35.

Caserones got a double whammy when the first storm took out a power transmission tower and when that damage had almost been completely fixed, another storm destroyed the tower again. This set back the recovery process and prolonged the downtime at the mine.

These latest production disruptions compound the challenges that Chile has been facing in its copper industry. Initial production forecasts had indicated that the country would see its copper output drop by 2.6% from what it produced in 2025. From January to June this year, government records indicate the country experienced a 6.6% drop from the amount of copper it produced during the same period in 2025.

The government is ramping up its efforts to attract new investment in the industry so that production can grow to 6 million tons annually once new mines are opened and modern equipment is installed. Current annual production is slightly above 5 million tons, but mines are aging and ore grades are dropping, leading to expectations of further reductions in output.

Given that Chile is a major supplier of copper on the global market, reductions in production can cause shocks to global availability and trigger price volatility. Until exploration firms like Collective Mining Ltd. (NYSE American: CNL) (TSX: CNL) move their projects into production in other regions, global copper markets could remain largely vulnerable to events in Chile.

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