The consumption of copper in the U.S. and India is forecast to grow and come close to the consumption in China over the coming ten years as the use of the red metal in China slows down.
China’s infrastructure and industrial expansion was instrumental in driving up the price of copper on the world market from about $1,500 quarter a century ago to the current approximately $10,000 for each ton.
Analysts expect Beijing to retain its top spot among copper markets during the coming ten years and even beyond, but they expect that other price and demand factors will play an increasing role in how the main markets for this metal evolve. Some of those forces include geopolitical shifts, infrastructure cycles and changes to regional policies.
As the United States and several other countries put emphasis on local manufacturing, manufacturing activity in China and its export base will be impacted by this import substitution. Consequently, the East Asian country’s demand for the red metal will gradually decline. Currently, the country is expected to require approximately 15 million metric tons of copper in 2025.
As the demand for data centers and electricity grid improvements fueled by the AI boom continues to accelerate in different countries, the demand for copper in those regions outside China will keep growing and impact the price of the metal.
Tom Price, an analyst at Panmure Liberum, explains that China became dominant as a market for copper because for the past few decades, the country was building out its infrastructure and manufacturing base from scratch. Those systems are now in place, he adds, and that means that the requirement for copper in that country is bound to shift in tandem with the reality on the ground.
Price forecasts that in 2031, the demand for copper in China will fall by 6% when compared to the country’s demand for the metal in 2026. He says China is expected to consume about 57% of all the copper produced globally in 2026, and this fraction will drop to 52% in 2031.
In contrast, Price expects copper demand in the United States to grow by 50% by 2031 compared to what the country is projected to require in 2026. India’s consumption is also expected to tick up by 30% in 2031 when compared to what the country will require in 2026.
Geopolitical factors like the trade war between the U.S. and China are also set to reshape the market for copper. For example, the 50% import tariff levied by the Trump administration on copper wiring and piping will have a significant impact on China’s exports of these products. In 2024, the U.S. sourced more than 14 million tons of these products from China. With the tariffs now in place, China is set to lose a significant portion of those exports as local manufacturing gathers steam in the U.S.
So many pieces of the copper market jigsaw are bound to shift from time to time, and entities like Torr Metals Inc. (TSX.V: TMET) currently engaged in copper exploration activities will need to keep tabs on those moving parts in order to take into account the existing conditions in the market.
NOTE TO INVESTORS: The latest news and updates relating to Torr Metals Inc. (TSX.V: TMET) are available in the company’s newsroom at https://ibn.fm/TMET
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