According to a recently published 2026 outlook for precious metals, analysts at Heraeus predict that robust investment demand, central bank purchases and concerns about fiscal dominance could cause the price of gold to climb significantly in H2 in 2026.
The team cautions that the precious metal’s rally this year was too fast in taking prices up, so there is likely to be a loss in momentum so that prices can consolidate. They cite the range-bound price movement of gold from April until August as an example of sideways movement before a rally gains further traction. They add that several months could pass while gold moves sideways before it resumes its upward price movement.
The analysts say gold has a firm base supporting its upward price movement. This base is anchored on acquisitions of the metal by central banks, and this demand remains strong. This bodes well for the gold market in 2026, the Heraeus team believes.
Interest in de-dollarization is driving gold purchases by many central banks, and this will support gold prices over the coming year and possibly beyond. They cite a survey conducted by the World Gold Council indicating that 43 percent of central banks around the world expect to increase their gold holdings.
On fiscal policy, Heraeus says President Trump has been vocal about wanting interest rates to drop a lot faster than has been happening. As Jerome Powell’s term winds down, the White House has an opportunity to pick a Fed Chair whose approach aligns with that of the president. In such a case, monetary policy is likely to be leveraged to keep the benchmark lending rate low, a scenario that will result in negative real interest on instruments like bonds. In that environment, the demand for gold will rise, elevating its price further.
The analysts caution that the U.S. still risks sliding into recession. Pointers like the weakening labor market suggest the economy is stressed and investors need to keep an eye on this while planning their portfolio allocations.
For 2026, the Heraeus analysts forecast that the price of gold will be in the $3,750-5,000 range per ounce. This range accounts for the market correction and consolidation they expect early in the year before the next leg up in the price of the metal in the latter part of the year.
Several analysts are likely to publish their precious metals forecasts over the coming weeks as the year comes to an end. Entities like Platinum Group Metals Ltd. (NYSE American: PLG) (TSX: PTM) are likely to analyze those different forecasts and generate their own predictions for the coming year.
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