Analysts have made upward revisions of their forecasts for the price of copper in 2026 after a number of incidents at major mines deepened concerns about market deficits. Benchmark copper contracts on the LME reached their highest price in 17 months this October after news filtered through regarding production disruptions in Congo, Chile and Indonesia.
Dubbed ‘Doctor Copper’ due to its role as an indicator of global economic health, copper has appreciated 25% thus far in 2025. These gains are expected to be retained in the course of next year as the full impact of the production disruptions filter through to the market.
According to a recent poll conducted by Reuters, the average price for spot copper next year will be about $10,500 per ton. This prediction marks a 7.2% increase from a previous poll that was conducted in July showing that the price was expected to be approximately $9,796.
EIU analyst Mathew Sherwood said that they expected the red metal to retain the price gains it has registered this year and keep them next year and possibly beyond. He added that the recent supply disruptions will trigger deficits much sooner than they had originally envisaged. These comments come after the Grasberg mine, the second largest around the world, halted production in September following a flooding incident that claimed the lives of seven employees at the site.
Previously, analysts had expected the copper market to be oversupplied this year. However, incidents at major production mines have caused the analysts to reverse their oversupply predictions and replace them with forecasts of deficits. In the July poll, the overall expectation was for a surplus amounting to 40,000 tons. After the mine disruptions, the consensus is that there will be a supply shortfall of approximately 124,000 metric tons this year. Next year, this shortfall is expected to grow to 150,000 metric tons.
Meanwhile, aluminum, which is used in construction, packaging and transport industries, has so far registered price gains of 14% thus far in 2025. Forecasts for the metal’s price next year have also ticked upwards and a ton of the metal is now expected to cost approximately $2,679 on the LME next year. China is the largest producer of this metal globally, and production in the country is close to the 45 million metric tons annual cap imposed by the government. As this cap is reached, supply could be held at that level, which could exert upward pressure on prices.
As these market dynamics play out in 2026, copper value chain players like Aston Bay Holdings Ltd. (TSX.V: BAY) (OTCQB: ATBHF) will be tracking every factor and analyzing how it could impact their strategic plans.
NOTE TO INVESTORS: The latest news and updates relating to Aston Bay Holdings Ltd. (TSX.V: BAY) (OTCQB: ATBHF) are available in the company’s newsroom at https://ibn.fm/ATBHF
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